Rounding Third: Five AL storylines to watch in spring training

Baseball Betting Lines

02/22/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There is no better phrase for a baseball fan than, "Pitchers and catchers report." Although the weather here in the Northeast has resembled spring for much of the winter, the fact that baseball is starting is a clear indication that spring is indeed right around the corner.

With that said, let's take a look at some of the bigger stories to watch in the American League over the next few weeks as teams begin to get ready for the start of the 2012 season:

ALBERT PUJOLS' ADJUSTMENT TO THE AMERICAN LEAGUE

Albert Pujols' move to Los Angeles was the biggest story this offseason and how he adjusts to a new league may be the biggest story to watch in the coming months. Getting familiarized with the AL won't be that big of a deal thanks to interleague play. But, how Pujols adjusts to a to a new manager, new clubhouse dynamic, new media market and new fan base will be interesting, especially early on when he may try to overdo it in proving he is worth the $240 million he signed for this winter. Angels Stadium is not exactly hitter-friendly, but neither was Busch Stadium, where Pujols did most of his damage. Remember Hall of Famer Frank Robinson had the best year of his career after switching leagues in 1966, winning the AL MVP that season for the Baltimore Orioles. Pujols should have similar success. The eventual breakdown may be coming, but it won't be in year one of this deal.

WILL MIGUEL CABRERA HAVE A SMOOTH TRANSITION TO THIRD BASE?

Immediately upon the Detroit Tigers signing first baseman Prince Fielder to a mega $214 million deal, questions came surrounding Miguel Cabrera and where he would play. Is he upset, will he strictly be a designated hitter, would he move back to third base? Well, Cabrera made it easy on everyone, as he stated right from the beginning that he was happy to move back to third base to accommodate Fielder. It's not as if Cabrera was Don Mattingly at first anyway. Then again, neither is Fielder. The biggest question is if his big frame could handle the day-in, day-out duties of third base, but Cabrera is in camp early and seems to be in his best shape in some time. He hasn't played third base on a regular basis since 2007 and seemed awkward during a 14-game stint there with the Tigers in 2008 when he committed five errors. He's made 48 errors in 387 games for his career at third base. That's a .951 fielding percentage and would have ranked him 14th among 20 players who played at least 100 games at third last year. It's not great, but as long as he's serviceable, that should be more than enough for a Tigers team that some think is the class of the AL.

BOBBY V BACK IN THE LEAGUE

Baseball is always better if Bobby Valentine is involved. And he's not only involved, he's been put in charge of righting a Boston Red Sox team that last year went through the worst collapse in baseball history, as they blew a nine- game wild card lead as late as Sept. 2, going just 7-20 in the final month of the season. Stories came out that the clubhouse was a mess and manager Terry Francona left, as did general manager Theo Epstein. Now here comes Valentine. The guy to fix things, or add more gasoline to the fire? He's had a knack for turning his teams against him and already had a run-in in the past with left fielder Carl Crawford. Valentine knows what he is doing, though, and this Red Sox team is probably the most talented bunch he has ever managed. Will they listen, though? Even if things don't work out, Valentine will be interesting. Maybe we'll hear more stories about him inventing the sandwich wrap.

HOW DANIEL BARD HANDLES HIS MOVE TO ROTATION

Speaking of the Red Sox, one of the more intriguing things to watch in their camp will be the transition of reliever Daniel Bard to the rotation. It was almost a fait accompli that once Jonathan Papelbon left as a free agent that Bard would assume the closer's role. The Red Sox had other ideas, however. Bard, one of the game's best set-up men the last couple of seasons, now enters a rotation that already includes Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz, but one that has a glaring hole with John Lackey sidelined for the season. In 2007, Bard's first professional season, he went 3-7 with a 7.08 ERA in 22 starts at two levels of Single A, and the Red Sox moved him to the bullpen one year later. There are some major red flags here. He's never gone over 75 innings as a reliever and some question whether or not his changeup as a third pitch is good enough to get through a big league lineup three times in a game.

THE TEXAS RANGERS

The Texas Rangers are the two-time defending AL champions, yet nobody gives them any respect. Last year, it was "they can't win without Cliff Lee." Well, they ran away with the AL West thanks to a patchwork rotation headed up by C.J. Wilson. Now, all the talk out West is on the Angels, who not only landed Pujols this offseason, but also stole Wilson from the Rangers. So a suspect rotation even with Wilson is now a huge question mark because it will now be headed up by an unproven Japanese star in Yu Darvish and their closer from last season, Neftali Feliz. While I'm more sold on Feliz working out than Bard in Boston, it's still a big gamble. The Rangers have brought in Joe Nathan to close games, but if he slips, look for Alexi Ogando to fill that role nicely. Then there is the Josh Hamilton factor. He may be out to prove something after another offseason slipup. That could be bad news for not only the AL West, but for the rest of the league. I'm not ready to bet against Ron Washington's crew just yet.

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Eastern Conference Playoff Betting Trends

We all know by now that the “public” loves to put their money on the FAVORITES and the OVERS.  Just by taking a quick glance at Sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends” it appears as is this tendency will continue as far as the Eastern Conference games are concerned.  For the inaugural games of the first round, 69% of the early money is on Toronto -4.5; 59% of bettors prefer Chicago -4.5; 84% are backing Detroit -9; and 56% think Cleveland -11.5 is the way to go.  As far as TOTALS are concerned, the only UNDER the “public” is backing is the Cleveland/ Washington game in which 83% are pounding the UNDER (190).  Remember, there is no better way to predict a possible line change than by monitoring MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”.   By determining who the “public” is backing, you can get the most ideal line for your bet.  For example, if you are siding with the public you better place your bet before the line moves in the wrong direction.  On the other side of the coin, if you prefer the team that the “public” is betting against; you might be able to get and extra ½ or even more by placing your bet a bit later.  Under the “Betting Trends” section, Sportsbook.com also provides plenty of statistical data and trends in order for the bettor to make the most informed pick.  Below are some extremely important trends for the first round opponents of the Eastern Conference match-ups, more can be found at MySportsbook.com

New Jersey Nets vs. Toronto Raptors

Toronto was the most reliable covering team this season with a 48-33-1 ATS record but covered the OVER only 41.5% of the time.
The last 20 times these teams have played, the TOTAL has gone UNDER 16 times.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Toronto is 33-19 ATS including 17-9 at home.
 New Jersey has covered four games in a row while Toronto has failed to cover their last four games.
When playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season, New Jersey was just 5-13 ATS this season.
After scoring 105 points or more, Toronto has covered the OVER only 28% of the time this season. 
 
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls

Miami has failed to cover their last 7 games whereas Chicago has covered 6 out of their last 8 games.
Miami has covered the UNDER in four of their last five games whereas Chicago has covered the UNDER in five out of their last six.
When playing on Saturdays, Miami covered 80% of their games this season.
Away from home, Chicago is just 16-25 ATS this season.
At home, Miami covered the UNDER about 66% of the time whereas Chicago covered the UNDER about 61% of the time.
The last 13 times these teams have played each other, Chicago has covered 9 times.
In Miami’s last 11 road games, the UNDER covered 9 times. 
 
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons

Detroit has covered 5 out of their last 6 games.
Away from home, Detroit is 28-13 ATS but just 14-26-1 ATS at home.
At home, Orlando covered the UNDER 64% of the time while Detroit covered the UNDER in 63% of their away games.
The last five times these teams have played in Detroit, the OVER covered each time.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Detroit is 8-17-1 ATS at home but 17-9 ATS away.
Detroit covered the spread 5 out of the last 6 times they played Orlando.
After a Division game, Orlando covered the UNDER 87% of the time this season. 
 
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers

In a home game where the TOTAL is between 190 and 194.5 points, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season.
Washington has covered the UNDER in their last 6 games and in 8 of their last 9 games.
The last 6 times these teams have played each other, the UNDER covered each time.
When playing on 3 or more days of rest, Washington is just 18-37 ATS since 1996.
Since 1996, Washington is 28-16 ATS versus Cleveland including 11-5 over the last 3 seasons.
In their last 7 road games, Washington is 6-1 ATS.
Versus Eastern Conference teams at home, Washington is just 6-18-2 ATS. 
 
For even more betting trends for not just the NBA but for all of the major sports, log on to Sportsbook.com and click on “Trends”.  With only two months left in the NBA betting season it is important to be as well informed as possible in order to maximize your profit.  Also for all of you poker players, check out MySportsbook.com’s “WSOP Low Bid Auction”. You could be on your way to Vegas to play against the world’s best poker players for under a buck.

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